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Border Incursion, Flashpoints, Military, Resources, Strategic Interests May 17, 2012

Energy Engagement: Turkish warplanes intercept Israeli jet violating Turkish Cyprus airspace

TURKEY accused Israel on Thursday of violating the airspace of Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus in a controversial oil and gas exploration area.

The Israeli aircraft “violated” the northern Cyprus’s airspace five times in Monday’s incident which saw Turkish fighter jets chase out the intruder, the army command said in a statement.

The airspace violations reportedly occured between 11:05 a.m. and 12:49 p. m., and lasted a total of eigth minutes.

It gave no other details about the incident nor the type of Israeli plane involved in the alleged incursion over the breakaway statelet, which is recognized only by Ankara.

Flashpoints, Intelligensia, Resources, Strategic Interests May 17, 2012

PLA ships seen testing drones in Pacific Ocean

Japan says more Chinese naval ships have been seen near Okinawa, with some staging drills involving unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) able to carry missiles and conduct surveillance that analysts say is crucial for China to expand its maritime power.

The Joint Staff Office of the Japanese Defence Ministry said the country’s maritime defence force on Monday morning spotted three Chinese ships – two Type 054A multi-role warships and one Dongdiao 232 electronic surveillance ship – going through the Okinawa Miyako Strait on their way to the East China Sea.

Economy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Risks May 17, 2012

Greek eurozone exit ‘could spark coup’

As markets prepare for the prospect of a Greek exit from the euro, one prominent British economist says Greece could face a military coup if it abandons the single currency.

Financial markets have been sold down amid speculation Greece will have to leave the eurozone and abandon its debts.

But Sav Savouri, chief economist at London based hedge fund Tosca Fund, says the country has little option but to remain in the 17-member currency bloc because the situation will be very bleak if it leaves.

Mr Savouri had a grim view of the outlook for the country if Greece returned to the drachma.

Conflict, Development, Flashpoints, Military, Policy, Risks May 17, 2012

Plans to strike Iran “ready”, says U.S. Israel envoy

U.S. plans for a possible military strike on Iran are ready and the option is “fully available”, the U.S. ambassador to Israel said, days before Tehran resumes talks with world powers which suspect it of seeking to develop nuclear arms.

Like Israel, the United States has said it considers military force a last resort to prevent Iran using its uranium enrichment to make a bomb. Iran insists its nuclear program is for purely civilian purposes.

“It would be preferable to resolve this diplomatically and through the use of pressure than to use military force,” Ambassador Dan Shapiro said in remarks about Iran aired by Israel’s Army Radio on Thursday.

Flashpoints, Intelligensia, Military Buildup, Stratagem, Strategic Interests May 16, 2012

US/Australia Cocos Islands spy plan

DEFENCE plans to develop the Cocos Islands in the Indian Ocean as a base for Australian and US spy drones and aircraft run counter to assurances Canberra has given the United Nations, one of Australia’s most senior foreign policy figures has warned.

Australia promised it would not ”militarise” the islands when persuading key nations at the world body not to oppose the transfer of the former British possession to Australian sovereignty, the former Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade secretary Richard Woolcott, said.

The recent Defence Force Posture Review suggested Defence consider upgrading the Cocos Islands airfield to support the new P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft likely to be acquired by the Royal Australian Air Force.

Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Paramilitary, Powerplay May 16, 2012

US helps coordinates arms for Syria rebels: report

Syria’s rebels have seen an influx of arms including anti-tank weaponry for their fight against President Bashar al-Assad regime, in an effort coordinated with the help of the United States, a report said today.

Officials in President Barack Obama’s administration insist it is not directly supplying the weapons or providing funding, with Gulf states paying for the new arms, the Washington Post said, citing US and foreign officials.

But Washington has stepped up links with the rebels and regional militaries allying with them, playing a role in the rebel’s foreign support network, the report said.

Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, News May 16, 2012

Euro fears rise as Greeks withdraw money from banks

Greeks have withdrawn billions of euros from their banks in recent days, with the country’s president warning of “panic” at the prospect of the country leaving the eurozone.

“My family already sent some €20,000 of our savings to my sister, who lives in Switzerland,” says M.S., a Greek citizen who lives in Brussels and works in the financial sector.

Like him, many Greeks are either transferring their savings abroad or taking them out of the banks, driven by fear that the country may have to leave the eurozone.

Conflict, Development, Flashpoints, Risks May 16, 2012

‘Accidental war’ waiting to happen on EU periphery

If or when a full-blown conflict erupts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, it will probably begin like this.

According to a senior source in the Armenian defence ministry, on 27 April Azerbaijani troops sneaked over the Armenian border in the north-east province of Tavush and took up positions on either side of a road connecting the villages of Movses and Aygepar.

At around 2am local time – the source said – they opened fire from close range at the windscreen of an approaching car carrying out-of-uniform Armenian soldiers. The ambush killed 28-year-old David Abgaryan, 21-year-old Arshak Nersisyan and 26-year-old father-of-one Aram Yesayan.

The killing is a “clear provocation,” the source told EUobserver in Yerevan on 5 May. He added: “We have not reacted yet. I underline ‘yet’.”

Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints May 16, 2012

Eurozone shocked by ‘O’ percent economic growth

The 17-nation eurozone grows 0 percent in quarter as Germany remains the only large economy to post expansion. Even the Netherlands’ economy shrinks 0.2 percent, signaling no quick recovery for the euro area
Two men are the only customers of an almost empty terrace in the Plaza Mayor, in Madrid. Spain has announced that its economy is back in recession. AP photo

The eurozone just avoided recession in early 2012 but the region’s debt crisis sapped the life out of the French and Italian economies and widened a split with paymaster Germany.

Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) stagnated in the first quarter, the EU’s statistics office Eurostat said yesterday.

Conflict, Flashpoints, Military, News May 16, 2012

Lebanese army deploys in Tripoli areas hit by fighting

The Lebanese army deployed Tuesday in sectors of Tripoli affected by clashes, calming the area after three days of sectarian fighting that killed nine people, an AFP correspondent said.

Troops entered Syria Street, the frontline of fighting between the districts of Bab el-Tebbaneh, and Jabal Mohsen, at around 6:00 am (0300 GMT).

Bab al-Tebbaneh sits opposite Jabal Mohsen, where the majority of residents are supporters of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

CyberOps, Development, Military May 15, 2012

8,000 contractors said eligible for U.S. cyber guard

Up to 8,000 companies doing business with the Pentagon may be qualified to join a newly expanded U.S. effort to guard sensitive information on private networks, a senior Defense Department official said Monday.

The Pentagon on Friday invited all of its eligible contractors to join the voluntary pact aimed at fighting what U.S. officials have described as growing cyber threats that allegedly originate, above all, in Russia and China.

The Defense Department will provide intelligence-derived information on malicious Internet traffic to the companies; the firms are to share information on any cyber penetrations of their networks with the government.

Crisis, Economy, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Risks May 15, 2012

Moody’s downgrades 26 Italian banks; ratings now among the lowest in Western Europe

Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the debt ratings of 26 Italian banks Monday as they struggled with the effect of the weak economy and government austerity measures.

The move means Moody’s now ranks Italy’s banks lower than most of their Western European peers.

The ratings agency said the banks are suffering because Italy is back in recession and government measures are cutting demand for loans. Banks are facing more loan losses, limited access to funding and weaker profits.

Moody’s noted, however, that support from the European Central Bank lowered the default risk of many of the banks.

Diplomacy, Flashpoints, Stratagem, Strategic Interests May 15, 2012

S. Korea, China to cooperate on Pyongyang GPS jamming

South President Lee Myung-bak and his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao agreed to cooperate on devising measures to address North Korea’s jamming of satellite traffic navigation signals during their talks here on Monday.

The leaders exchanged their views on the safety of passenger flight operations in South Korea, China and Japan, said Kim Tae-hyo, senior presidential secretary for national security.

In recent weeks, hundreds of aircraft and ships in South Korea have been affected by Global Position System disruptions, which Seoul authorities claim were caused by the North’s electric jamming waves.

Development, Diplomacy, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, Risks May 15, 2012

South Korea cautions against deployment of US tactical nukes

Seoul officials and experts cautioned against the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula proposed by some in the United States, which they fear could refuel an atomic arms race in Northeast Asia.

The US House Armed Services Committee on Thursday approved an amendment to the fiscal 2013 national defense authorisation bill that calls for the re-introduction of the sensitive weapons to South Korea, according to the diplomacy publication Foreign Policy.

While the South Korean government is not openly criticising the idea, concerned ministries say that Seoul remains fundamentally in favour of denuclearisation of the peninsula and that such developments will bring little security benefits for Seoul.

Military Buildup, News May 15, 2012

Israel Unveils New Butterfly-Shaped Insect Drone

Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) is developing a new Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) in the shape of a tiny butterfly. IAI hopes the vehicle can be used to reach remote locations and gather information. The artificial butterfly weighs only 20 grams and is capable of a vertical takeoff, just like a helicopter.

The butterfly can take color pictures and is managed remotely with a special helmet. “When you put this on you are actually inside the butterfly’s cockpit. You see what the butterfly sees. You can fly at any altitude and distance and see everything in real time,” said Dubi Binyamini, head of IAI’s mini-robotics department, according to Israel Hayom.

Military, News, Strategic Interests May 15, 2012

China military paper warns officers against ‘Western’ plotting

China’s top military newspaper warned officers on Tuesday to remain the ruling Communist Party’s “most loyal” defenders in the face of what it called Western plotting, describing recent cases of ill-discipline and corruption as a “profound warning”.

The commentary in the Liberation Army Daily did not specify what problems might have prompted the unusually blunt warning over laxity, waste and abuses in the Chinese military, but the Communist Party is wrestling with scandals ahead of a power succession later this year.

Its leaders appear determined to ensure that the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) remains the ultimate shield of their authority.

Conflict, Crisis, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, Resources, Risks May 14, 2012

AllAfrica: Former U.S. official calls for arming South Sudan army

The United States should move in to provide anti-aircraft defense systems to South Sudan in order to discourage Khartoum from launching aerial attacks and persuade it into returning to negotiations, former special envoy to Sudan said.

Since South Sudan gained its independence from the north in July 2011, it has accused its northern neighbor of bombarding inside its territories and particularly near the border regions. Some of the bombings were confirmed by UN officials and journalists.

The alleged bombing campaigns intensified particularly after the outbreak of rebellions last year in the border states of Blue Nile and South Kordofan by the Sudan People Liberation Movement North (SPLM-N).

Crisis, Flashpoints, Protest, Regime Change May 14, 2012

The Kremlin’s Cognitive Dissonance

It seems that for the past five months the authorities have been suffering from cognitive dissonance in their relations with Muscovites.

This is a disorder in which someone’s beliefs do not match objective reality. Unable to change his convictions, the person instead rejects reality and enters an imaginary world. That explains why Russian leaders behave as if they enjoy the support of the majority of Muscovites, despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

There have been more street protests in Moscow in the past five months than in the previous 15 years combined. Of course, the demonstrators account for only about 1 percent of Moscow’s population, but that means that there are several angry, opposition-minded people in practically every apartment building in the city. A Ph.D. in sociology isn’t necessary to understand that Muscovites are unhappy with the ruling regime.

Conflict, Development, Military, Systemic Abuse, War Crimes May 14, 2012

U.S. Still Grappling with Human Trafficking by War Zone Contractors

Congressional hearings and recently-introduced legislation have put the spotlight on the issue of U.S. taxpayer-funded labor trafficking, and the abuse of third-country nationals overseas by U.S. military contractors. One of the leading associations of U.S. overseas contractors has devoted the latest issue of its journal to the topic of trafficking – a sign that the contractor community is well-acquainted with the topic.

“The U.S. Congress’s newfound interest in addressing the problem of labor trafficking is certainly welcome, given that the issue has long plagued U.S.-led operations in Afghanistan and Iraq,” writes Doug Brooks, president of the International Stability Operations Association, in the May/June issue of its Journal of International Peace Operations.

Crisis, Flashpoints, Protest, Regime Change, Rigging, Risks May 13, 2012

Awaiting the Next Revolution

The violence that accompanied the inauguration of Vladimir Putin as Russian president this week is an ominous sign that Putin’s apparent desire to rule for life is leading his country toward a dangerous political confrontation.

Initial demonstrations following last December’s fraudulent Russian parliamentary elections were cheerful. Crowds of more than 100,000 kept to agreed meeting places and routes and even thanked the police for showing restraint.

On the eve of this Monday’s inauguration, however, police made 450 arrests and attacked demonstrators with batons, sending at least 17 people to the hospital. More than 20 police were injured by debris and beer bottles thrown by protesters.

Development, Military, News May 13, 2012

Britain to deploy ‘sonic cannon’ at Olympics

Britain’s military will be armed with a sonic device that can be used as a high-volume loudspeaker or a non-lethal weapon to disperse crowds at this summer’s Olympic Games in London, the defense ministry said on Friday.

The equipment, which can project a piercing sound over hundreds of meters causing physical pain, has been used during protests at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh in 2009 and against pirates operating off the Somali coast.

The Ministry of Defense said it expected to use it primarily in loudspeaker mode to communicate with boats it wants to stop on the River Thames.

Defense chiefs have already caused controversy by announcing plans to put surface-to-air missiles on the top of residential buildings near the Olympics site in east London.

Crisis, Development, Integration, Military May 12, 2012

Turkey: NATO Article 5 still at play in Syrian crisis

The possibility of invoking the right to military protection of Turkish borders against threats from Syria under Article 5 of the NATO charter is still on Turkey’s agenda, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson has said, Today’s Zaman reported.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Selcuk Unal said during a press briefing on Thursday that Turkey’s expectation from Syria is that it halts the violence as soon as possible to prevent further instability. Unal said: “However, we have many options on the table if this instability deepens. We have to determine these options in accordance with the developments we face. As you know, Article 5 of NATO is related to self-defense. So, this issue was mentioned in the past due to some incidents that occurred [along the Turkish border]. This is, of course, a matter which will remain on the agenda and it will still be assessed.”

Crisis, Flashpoints, Military Buildup, Stratagem, Strategic Interests May 12, 2012

“NATO plans to heighten tensions with Russia”

NATO plans to upgrade the U.S. estimated 180 tactical nuclear weapons in Western Europe will only heighten tensions with Russia.

This is according to European Leadership Network (ELN), a thinktank supported by former British defense ministers.
The ELN experts believe that the NATO plans are unnecessary, expensive and likely to exacerbate already difficult relations with Russia.

The Alliance is preparing to replace “dumb” free-fall nuclear bombs and ageing delivery aircraft with precision-guided weapons that would be carried by U.S. F35 strike aircraft.

The report was written by former arms control adviser to the U.S. mission at NATO headquarters in Brussels Ted Seay.

Economy, GeoPolitics, Integration May 12, 2012

ASEAN moving towards Asian Union and Monetary Fund

ASEAN is at the center of these talks. The association has long sought to use its collective structure to give member states more power in economic and political negotiations with outside parties than any state could achieve alone. But ASEAN has taken a non-interference pledge and as a group has few political or military ambitions. The association lacks the economic, political or military heft of Asia’s two likelier centers — China and Japan.

The United States remains an influential power in Asia. Washington’s perceived effort to use regional alliances to contain China does affect Beijing’s behavior. However, the region has become more dynamic, especially as the regional center of gravity has shifted from Tokyo to Beijing over the past two decades.

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StratRisks: Global Insights, Global Intelligence, Strategic News and Risk Assessment "Praemonitus Praemunitus"

StratRisks:
Global Insights, Global Intelligence, Strategic News and Risk Assessment
"Praemonitus Praemunitus"